证据链与因果推演｜Evidence and causality

四个层次 / Four layers

来源是文件、报道或观测；主张是其中可以核对的陈述；事件是有时间和范围的事实组合；推演则提出条件性的传导机制。Sources contain checkable claims. Events combine claims with time and scope. Inference proposes conditional transmission.

相关不等于因果 / Correlation is not causation

先后发生不保证前者导致后者。需要检查预期、共同驱动、反向因果、替代解释和时间窗口。An earlier event need not cause a later outcome. Check expectations, common drivers, reverse causality, alternatives and the relevant window.

如何阅读 ORAKT / Reading ORAKT

实线或地图点位不能单独证明因果。查阅每个节点的来源、状态和缺口；若缺少中间机制，应暂缓结论。来源指纹证明内容版本，不证明内容真实。Check node sources, status and gaps. Missing mechanisms warrant deferral. A content hash identifies a version, not its truth.

来源与进一步阅读 / Sources

• ORAKT 研究方法 / Methodology

来源支持对应背景，不代表验证所有传导或投资结论。Sources support context, not every inference or investment conclusion.